Update: The Debate on Order 17 Heats Up

From the current issue of Newsweek, a brief report from Baghdad:

July 17, 2006 issue - The arrest of former U.S. Army Pfc. Steven D. Green—for the alleged rape of an Iraqi woman and the murder of her and three relatives near the town of Mahmudiyah—brought apologies from U.S. officials. But that didn't stem a growing debate over Coalition Provisional Authority Order 17, which exempts members of the U.S. military from Iraqi laws. "We cannot go on having these unfortunate incidents repeated, and we have to work on stopping them from happening again," Iraqi national-security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told NEWSWEEK. "There is no way we can accept CPA Order 17 anymore." U.S. officials, unnamed because of diplomatic sensitivities, said Iraqi P.M. Maliki's need to oppose the order might lessen if any wrongdoers in the Haditha and Mahmudiyah cases are held accountable. Green pleaded not guilty in a U.S. federal court last week.

Update: Render Unto CIA That Which Is ...

If Italian prosecutors have anything to say about it, the issue of C.I.A. "renditions," particularly the egregious example of "Abu Omar," snatched off the streets of Milan in 2003, is not going to go away. We wrote about the case extensively last year, and even shot a little video from the scene of the alleged crime, in "The Road to Rendition." Then came a follow-up, "Bourne Again," about the lives and loves of the CIA team that allegedly took part in the abduction. (As the headlines suggest, there's something vaguely B-movie about the whole affair.) A Shadowland column in December about the role of "plane-spotters" in tracking down the rendition flights suggests just how extensive they were, and how hard it is to keep secrets in the Internet age.

A few weeks ago, on June 7, Swiss lawmaker Dick Marty, on behalf of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly, issued a lengthy report. He didn't have many resources, but concluded -- largely on the basis of press reports and the cooperation he did or did not receive for his inquiries -- that about 14 European governments had cooperated with the American rendition program. The result was what his report called a "'spider's web' of secret detentions and unlawful inter-state transfers." But, bad luck for Marty, his headlines were obliterated by the annoucement next day that the infamous Jordanian terrorist Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi had been blown away in Iraq. The rendition issue looked as if it might be buried, too.

Nope. Yesterday news broke in Italy that prosecutors, led by the redoubtable anti-Mafia and anti-terror magistrate Armando Spataro, had issued warrants against two of the top officials in the Italian overseas intelligence service, SISMI. The organization has seen its share of troubles over the last two years -- not least the killing of its second highest-ranking officer, Nicola Calipari, by American troops manning a checkpoint in Iraq. (We wrote about this in two columns: "Reality Checkpoints," and "Body Counts," which I believe remains the most-read Shadowland column to date.) But Berlusconi was not inclined to hold Americans accountable, whether they were C.I.A. kidnappers or checkpoint gunners.

What's changed now, of course, is the government in Italy. Silvio Berlusconi is out, Romano Prodi and his leftist coalition are in. Spataro was isolated under the earlier regime, a charter member of the Coalition of the Willing. Berlusconi's justice minister, for instance, refused to pursue extradition requests for 22 Americans allegedly implicated in the Abu Omar case. Now, Spataro and other prosecutors seem to be getting more support.

This is not good news for the Bush administration. Even as prosecutors try to nail the top Italians involved in the Abu Omar kidnapping -- a trail that could lead to Berlusconi himself -- they are likely to renew those extradition requests. At the same time, they're looking at prosecution of the American soldier in Iraq who killedCalipari moments after he succeeded in freeing left-wing Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena from hostage-takers in Baghdad. Sgrena was seriously wounded.

We'll keep you posted in the Shadowland column, in Newsweek, and on this blog. Meanwhile, a couple of recent clips:

One from The New York Daily News last month, when Sgrena visited the United States:

Italian seeks G.I. shooter

Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena (above) was shot and key Italian intelligence officer Nicola Calipari was killed when Spec. Mario Lozano (below) fired at their car. Italian journalist and former Iraq war hostage Giuliana Sgrena offered yesterday to meet face-to-face with Spec. Mario Lozano, the New York City National Guardsman who shot her in a friendly fire mistake on a deserted road to the Baghdad airport last year. "I think that it would be useful for him and for me to have an exchange of opinion," Sgrena said during her first visit to the United States since the shooting. The shooting, which killed Nicola Calipari, the Italian government's second-ranking intelligence officer, just minutes after Calipari had secured Sgrena's release from Iraqi guerrillas, sparked a public furor in Italy. That uproar grew worse after a Pentagon report last year cleared the U.S. soldiers involved. Italian prosecutors, after conducting their own probe, announced plans this week to charge Lozano, a member of New York's legendary Fighting 69th, with murder and attempted murder. But Sgrena, who is still recovering from a gunshot wound that collapsed her lung, doesn't want Lozano to be made a "scapegoat."

And this from the BBC:

Wednesday, 5 July 2006, 12:56 GMT 13:56 UK

Italians held over 'CIA kidnap'

Two Italian intelligence officers have been arrested over the alleged CIA kidnapping of a terror suspect from Milan in 2003, city prosecutors say.

Unconfirmed Italian reports named one as Marco Mancini, a senior official at the Sismi intelligence agency.

Arrest warrants for four Americans were also issued, adding to 22 earlier ones.

Italy's previous government denied any role in the seizing of Egyptian Muslim cleric Osama Mustafa Hassan, who says he was taken to Egypt and tortured.

The two arrested men are the first Italians to be linked to the investigation. One is said to be in custody; the other under house arrest.

Mr Mancini is a former head of the anti-terrorist division of the Italian secret service. He has taken part in negotiations to free Italian hostages kidnapped in Iraq.

Kidnap claims

Mr Hassan, also known as Abu Omar, is believed to have been abducted from a Milan street on 17 February 2003, and flown out of the country from Aviano air base north of Venice.

The cleric, who had been granted refugee status in Italy, was already under investigation by Italian officers as part of a terrorism inquiry.

Milan prosecutors probing the kidnap case believe Mr Hassan was snatched by the CIA and taken to Aviano for interrogation, before being flown on to Cairo via Ramstein air base in Germany.

He is still being held in a jail in Egypt, but did make contact with his family and friends during a brief release. A friend who spoke to him said he had suffered electric shocks and other severe torture.

Wanted Americans

The Milan prosecutors' office statement said three of the Americans involved in the fresh arrest warrants were CIA agents, while the fourth worked at the Aviano base....

Today's New York Times goes into somewhat more depth, but tells essentially the same story.

Update: Rules of the Game in Iraq

Last week's Shadowland column, "The Rule of Order 17," said the agreements and resolutions governing the American presence in Iraq were going to have to be re-thought as resentments grow about crimes by American soldiers and contractors. That is precisely the context for Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's statements earlier this week, as cited on the BBC and in various wire reports:

Wednesday, 5 July 2006, 13:36 GMT 14:36 UK

Call for Iraq probe in rape case

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is demanding a fresh inquiry into the alleged rape and murder of an Iraqi woman by US troops.

Her father, mother and young sister also died in the March attack at their home in Mahmoudiya, south of Baghdad.

"We will demand an independent Iraqi inquiry, or a joint investigation with multinational forces," Mr Maliki said during a visit to Kuwait.

A former US soldier has been charged with rape and murder.

Up to four other soldiers are being investigated.

The inquiry is the latest in a series examining alleged abuses by US troops.

'Honour violated'

Mr Maliki also called for the immunity granted to coalition troops to be reviewed.

"We do not accept the violation of Iraqi people's honour as happened in this case. We believe that the immunity granted to international forces has emboldened them to commit such crimes," he said.

But a US military spokesman, Major-General William Caldwell, said American soldiers were not immune from prosecution because they were accountable under military law. ...

Of course, Caldwell dodges the central question. The immunity of American soldiers -- and just about any other American working on a USG contract or subcontract in Iraq -- is to Iraqi prosecution. -- C.D.

Press: Ben Bradlee On The Record

If you've got an hour or so to listen to Jim Lehrer's interview with Ben Bradlee, well, it's an education not only in the letter, but the spirit, of journalism as it should be.

This front page, by the way, is from the summer I started working at The Washington Post. - C.D.

French Protests: The Cuban Connection

Took this picture at Place de la Madeleine today. It was blocked off entirely so the CGT could protest against privatizations of state utilities. There were more cops than demonstrators, but the protesters were having a better time. Click to enlarge and check out the pink sign for one reason why. - CD 

Al Qaeda: MUBTAKKAR

Another new word, thanks to Ron Suskind and Time Magazine: "mubtakkar," which means "inventive" and is supposed to be the infernal machine that Al Qaeda planned to use on the NY subway in early 2003.

As an antidote to the hype, I'd suggest reading my colleague Mark Hosenball's report on the Suskind book. And for a very, very skeptical but well reasoned appraisal, I'd propose a curious blog called "Dick Destiny," which critiques not only the Time story, but the whole culture of hyperbole that has grown up around Al Qaeda's still futile efforts to conjure weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile, of course, it appears North Korea is getting ready to launch a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States and, oh darn, the Bush administration can't quite figure out what to do.... - C.D.

Bush: Screen Saver

If you haven't seen it already, this animated screen saver of President Bush tumbling ever downward is, well, interesting. If he gets stuck, you can move him with your cursor:

http://www.planetdan.net/pics/misc/georgie.htm

Iraq: DUSTWUN

From Department of Defense,
 INSTRUCTION NUMBER 1300.18, December 18, 2000:

E2.1.1.16.  Duty Status - Whereabouts Unknown (DUSTWUN).
A temporary designation, applicable to military members
only, used when the reason for a member's absence is
uncertain and it is possible that the member may be
a casualty whose absence is involuntary, but there is
not sufficient evidence to make a determination that
the member's actual status is missing or deceased.

The acronym DUSTWUN is an old one for the American military, but a new one for most of the American public. Sadly, it may soon be translated into "hostage."

This is the official Defense Department press release about the events near Yusufiyah south of Baghdad on Saturday:

DoD Identifies Army Casualty and Soldiers as Whereabouts Unknown
The Department of Defense announced today the death of one soldier
and the identity of two soldiers listed as Duty Status Whereabouts Unknown
(DUSTWUN) who were supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. On June 16, in
Baghdad, Iraq, the soldiers were manning a checkpoint when they came under
enemy small arms fire. All three soldiers were assigned to the 1st Battalion,
502nd Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault),
Fort Campbell, Ky.

Killed was:

Spc. David J. Babineau, 25, of Springfield, Mass.

Reported as DUSTWUN are:

Pfc. Kristian Menchaca, 23, of Houston, Texas

Pfc. Thomas L. Tucker, 25, of Madras, Ore.

According to some unconfirmed reports, the U.S. military, searching intensely for the two, has offered residents of the area up to $100,000 for information leading to their release. But it's unlikely this is a money deal.

Last Wednesday, I met with a British friend who runs one of the many private security companies in Iraq. He predicted that American and British soldiers would be taken hostage there and possibly in Afghanistan as well. He suggested that the most likely propaganda goal would be to accumulate several hostages taken in ambushes, then to carry out serial executions over time. It looks like he was right about the first part of the program. Let's hope he was wrong about the second. - CD

Iraq, Enron and Marla Ruzicka

 

On a flight from Jordan back to Paris today, I watched the 2005 documentary "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," which I hadn't seen before. It's a great reminder of the kind of BS "out-of-the-box" thinking and macho posturing that not only bankrupted a huge company, but helped drag the United States into the quagmire of Iraq. Afghanistan, after all, just wasn't a big enough war for tough guys like Dick Cheney and the neo-con clique at the Pentagon.

About two-thirds of the way through the movie, there is a chapter on Enron's rape of California in 2001, and a sequence in which protesters disrupt a conference with Enron CEO Jeff Skillings at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. One throws a blueberry tofu cream pie at the guy, or smears his face with it. That precise moment, alas, was not captured on tape, and I'm not sure who the intrepid pastry tosser was, but in the next scene we see Marla Ruzicka being dragged out of the room by a security man, shouting protests all the way.

I didn't meet Marla until the eve of the Iraq invasion, but saw her often in 2003 and 2004, when she was working to win recognition of and compensation for the Iraqi victims of the U.S.-led invasion. She'd been connected with the lefties of Global Exchange before that, and made protest a way of life, but the shock of Iraq had turned her into a pragmatist who was able to work with the American military, if necessary, to get help to some of the suffering Iraqis. When Marla was killed on the infamous airport road last year, all of us who knew here felt the loss.

A quick check of Google entries tells me that others noticed Marla in the Enron film, but I was surprised and touched to see her unexpectedly once again, so full of life and fire.

Rumsfeld: More on Unknown Unknowns

My friend Joe notes this remark from Rumsfeld just yesterday, on the alleged Haditha massacre:

"We also know that in conflicts things that shouldn't happen do happen."

-------

From Mark in Texas:

Regarding your article entitled "Iran: A Rummy Guide", I wish your magazine and the media in general would give credit to the originator of the concept of "Known Unknowns" (et. al). The seminal work defining these concepts, Augustine's Laws, was published 1983 by past Chairman of Lockheed Martin, and past Undersecretary of the Army, Norman Augustine.

I remember reading this work as a young engineer back in the mid 1980's and roaring with the laughter that only come from the truth exposed. Mr. Augustine's book is a must read for anyone in the defense business and is as true today (sadly) as it ever was.

And to all who refer to the concept of "Known Unknowns", give credit where credit is due.

Some of the articles I published over the last month:

Shadowland: Jail Break 27 May 2006
Why the best new chance to end the Middle East impasse came from Palestinian inmates of an Israeli prison.

Shadowland: K Is for Vendetta 17 May 2006
Why does the Bush administration want to believe that Kaddafi has changed his ways?

Shadowland: Season of the Wolf 12 May 2006
Is there a case for conspiracy theories about 9/11 and the Iraq war? For Washington's opponents, the truth is less important than the image of an America gone mad.

Newsweek International: Why Iran Is Driving Oil Up 7 May 2006
Tehran could calm jitters by toning down its nuclear rhetoric—if the regimee didn't need the money more.

NYT Book Review: The Sand Café,' by Neil MacFarquhar 7 May 2006
Love and Rockets

Newsweek Online: Catholics and Condoms 3 May 2006
Will the pope change the church’s stand? The Vatican is currently engaged in a complex debate—and a major part of it is whether condoms could turn marital sex into something considered evil.

Newsweek Online: Depth in Venice 5 May 2006
A French businessman’s stunning collection is helping to turn the city of the doges into a European mecca for modern art.

Newsweek: Iran: A Rummy Guide 30 April 2006
To borrow a phrase used for Iraq, there are 'things we now know we don't know.' NEWSWEEK sorts it out.

Egypt: Not the Picture of Democracy

It's been a long month away from the Blogosphere, but not away from the keyboard. Part of it was spent in Cairo, where the political freedoms allowed to blossom last year are drying up like lilies in the desert This week, I got word from Gameela Ismail, whose husband Ayman Nour was jailed after running against Hosni Mubarak in presidential elections, that the conference hall Nour established in his old parliamentary district had been burned. While I was in Cairo, I attended the hearing for Nour, where his appeal was rejected and he was, as a result, condemned to four more years in prison. Some pictures:


Gameela Ismail and her older son wait in court for word on Ayman Nour's appeal.


Ismail speads to reporters as an unidentified man watches and listens.



Gameela Ismail speaking to Al Jazeera outside courthouse, with riot police in background.

Conspiracy Query: Your thoughts on Pink's "Mr. President"; the movie "Loose Change," etc.

Dear friends:

I'm interested in the viral marketing of pop-opposition to the Iraq War and the Bush administration. You may recall Eminem's very successful get-out-the-vote (against Bush) diatribe in 2004: "Mosh." Now we have Pink weighing in with "Dear Mr. President" (which should load and play very quickly from this link).

At the same time, it seems a low-budget picture called "Loose Change" is pushing the conspiracy theory (first widely promoted by a best-seller in France) that the United States government, or people in it, actually launched the 9/11 attack on the Pentagon.
(USATODAY.com - Conspiracy film rewrites Sept. 11 )

I'd welcome any further examples, and your thoughts on this phenomenon generally.

Best regards, Chris
You can e-mail me at chris@christopherdickey.com or any of the other addresses you may have for me.

Iran: Known Knowns, Known Unknowns...

An effort to put in perspective the run-up to war -- or not:

Newsweek Magazine: Iran: A Rummy Guide, 30 April 2006
To borrow a phrase used for Iraq, there are 'things we now know we don't know.' NEWSWEEK sorts it out.

May 8, 2006 issue - Back in June 2002, as the Bush administration started pushing hard for war with Iraq by focusing on fears of the unknown—terrorists and weapons of mass destruction—Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld explained that when it came to gathering intelligence on such threats, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." Elaborating, Rumsfeld told a news conference: "There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know."

Now there's a crisis brewing with Iran. And the same basic problem applies: what is known, what is suspected, what can be only guessed or imagined? Is danger clear and present or vague and distant? Washington is abuzz now, as it was four years ago, with "sources" talking of sanctions, war, regime change. In 2002, despite a paucity of hard evidence, Iraq was made to seem an urgent threat demanding immediate action. "We don't want 'the smoking gun' to be a mushroom cloud" is the memorable phrase used by the then national-security adviser Condoleezza Rice.

Given the results of Washington's rush into the Iraqi unknown, concern is growing about U.S. policy toward Iran. Yet the Iranian case is very different—and more dangerous. The latest report from the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency, released last Friday by Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei, makes it clear that Tehran is defying U.N. demands that it freeze its nuclear activities. European and American diplomats are considering resolutions calling for unspecified consequences—and, according to European sources, they have contingency plans for sanctions outside the United Nations if they're blocked by Russian or Chinese vetoes. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, lest there be any doubt about his stand, said, "The Iranian nation won't give a damn about such useless resolutions."

With the confrontation raising questions about future oil supplies, and fears growing that a seemingly crazy regime may soon acquire atomic bombs, the IAEA and Western intelligence agencies are working overtime to separate fundamental facts from guesswork and propaganda....

Iran, Oil, Angry Readers

A lot of mail came in to Shadowland@newsweek.com about "Pumping Irony," which linked the ongoing Iran crisis to the huge surge in oil prices. Most of the readers seem to think I missed the point. They blame the oil companies, U.S. government policies and the American consumerh:

“This is a crock,” writes James from Collinsville, Texas. “You can watch 10 different news shows and [get] 10 different reason why gas is high. It’s a new formula, it’s China, it’s Iran … It’s simple. There is a monopoly in the oil business. The oil companies set the cost. They can sell it for what they want. When Clinton was president I paid $1.80 a gallon. Bush talk is just talk. They might drive it down in time for the elections, but it will not last long.”

Fran from Caldwell, Idaho, presents a similar view. “If gas costs so much at the pump because the price of crude is up, why exactly did Exxon post the biggest profits EVER in the history of mankind?” she writes. “If the refiners and distributors justify their price raises by telling us that they are sorry, but they are only passing along their own cost increases—would you not think then that oil company profits would be level with last year?”

“I don’t understand how Iran could be the problem,” writes Ryan from Spring, Texas. “To blame Iran for our problems is foolish. We are in this jam because our leadership refuses to take a constructive lead in alternative energy and energy conservation. We need leadership not excuses.”

Stephen from New York comments: “Yes Iran is manipulating prices. And tomorrow it will be Iraq or Saudi Arabia or Nigeria … The only means to reduce OPEC's power is to reduce our dependence—which is very doable with a combination of tax incentives, penalties and higher mileage requirements. It would be great to see the leaders of opinion move the country that way.”

We can also blame Nigerian rebels, Hugo Chavez, Alaskan tundra-huggers, China, India ... and all are factors. But Iran is the problem of the moment, taking advantage of the extremely tight market created by all these other elements to achieve two basic goals: an increase in prices at a time when the country is actually having trouble sustaining past production levels and, oh yes, keeping the oil-dependent world at bay while it develops the technology for atomic energy and weapons. For more on all this, see the Iran archive below, especially the "Countdown" pieces from the beginning of the year. - C.D.

Egypt and The Global War on Tourists

I was sad to see what happened in Dahab this week. I used to live in Egypt and it remains one of my favorite places in the world. In this week's Shadowland column, "The Global War on Tourists," I look at the way Al Qaeda's decentralization has forced it to focus on soft targets, putting vacationers at risk all over the world, but especially in the Muslim world. One grim detail in a memo Vivian Salama sent from the scene: diving instructors volunteered to search the waters off Dahab for bits and pieces of the victims.

Among the people I talked to for this article was Bruce Hoffman, who is certainly one of the most reasonable and reliable authorities on terrorism I know. His 1998 book, "Inside Terrorism," was updated after 2001, but its greatest value is the historical background it gives about the years when the danger was mounting, but few policymakers, and even fewer members of the public, were paying attention. (Of course, this was also the theme of my 1997 novel, "Innocent Blood.")

Another source for the column was Scott Atran's very interesting and persuasive article in the most recent issue of "The Washington Quarterly," which brings our understanding of trends in suicide terrorism up to date, and puts those new developments in the context of emerging ideological treatises like that of the Syrian Abu Mus'ab al-Suri. -- C.D.

Iran: An Annotated Archive

For quick reference, here are links to several stories and columns I've done on Iran, dating back to 2003. For more, see The Shadowland Archives:

Shadowland: Most-Favored Terrorists? , 19 July 2003
What's behind the French arrests of Iranian freedom fighters?

Leaders of a controversial Iranian opposition group had been arrested in a small town outside Paris that used to be the home of Vincent Van Gogh:

...Over coffee and sweets inside the headquarters in Auvers, spokesmen for the Mojehedin e-Khalq scoff at the notion their group would carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. They never have, they say, and never would. Some suggest that the arrests and threatened extraditions back to Iran are just France’s way of currying favor—and perhaps winning lucrative contracts—with the Tehran regime. “We condemn this shameful haggling with the mullahs,” proclaim the posters on Rue des Gords.

It’s a muddle, this case. Could the French government be so cynical that it would stage these arrests just to win contracts for oil deals and airplane sales? Or does it really believe the Americans might invade Iran, and thus set off a wave of terror in Europe? As I mulled all this over on the drive back to Paris, I kept thinking about the name the French interior ministry gave the raid on the Mojahedin headquarters: “Operation Théo.” It’s a reference to Van Gogh’s art-dealer brother, who is buried beside him on a hilltop overlooking Auvers. But what perverse sense of culture or history inspired such a rubric for such an action?

When I got home I pulled a copy of Vincent’s letters off the shelf and looked at the last lines—the very last lines of the very last unfinished note to Theo. If there was no clear answer, there was an odd reflection of the question some of the French may be asking themselves right now: “You’re not in the business of selling men as far as I know, and you can take a side, I find, really acting with humanity, but what do you want?”

----------

Shadowland: Countdown Iran, 19 Oct 2003
The United States finally won a diplomatic victory in the United Nations. But Washington and Tehran are moving toward war. How far will they go?

Look at the date. These tensions have been mounting for long time. But the pattern is well known:

...A countdown has started for war between the United States and Iran. It’s quiet but persistent right now, like the ticking of a Swatch. Soon enough though, alarms will start ringing.

When did this move toward war begin? You could say 25 years ago, with the fall of the Shah of Iran, or just this year, when Saddam was deposed. You could make the case that the clock started the moment some of Osama bin Laden’s key aides found sanctuary in Iran, or on the day that Iranian equipment used to make nuclear fuel showed traces of the stuff used in nuclear weapons. But whenever the countdown to war began, it’s already well under way.

Now, countdowns come in a lot of guises. They can be bluffs as trivial as a schoolyard threat, “I’m gonna count to three!” And sometimes they can be stopped, of course. But when it comes to making war, the closer you get to zero hour, the harder that is to do. Expectations rise, political capital is spent, troops are deployed. A crescendo approaches, a point of no return is passed—or is said to be—and the drama of the countdown itself starts to dictate events.

That’s part of the reason we rushed to war in Iraq last spring. The Bush administration didn’t want to lose the momentum it had drummed up for ousting Saddam Hussein, even if it had to fudge the facts about him. So: weapons of mass destruction? “Check.” Links to Al Qaeda? “Check.” United Nations support? A pause there. “Not needed.” U.S. troops in place? “Check.” Ready for action? “Hoo-ah!” Popular support in Iraq? “That’s what they say.” Popular support in the U.S.? “Just look at the polls!” Pliant press? “Yep.” Supine Congress? “Got it.”

In the case of Iran, the first part of that checklist is much the same, except the evidence against the ayatollahs is much more damning. ...

-----------

Shadowland: Sandbagged in Baghdad, 21 Jan 2005
As bad as things are in Iraq, the Americans can thank Iranian influences for preventing a total collapse. Why, for better or worse, Iraq's elections have to be held on time.

...By far the most obvious trap for American and regional interests right now is a short-term strategy that could well put the long-term future of Iraqi democracy in the hands of Iran’s mullah-ocracy. Two years ago, this seemed a minor risk compared to the big-picture accomplishment of ousting the dictator and eventually installing majority rule. No longer...

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Article: The Spying Game, 14 Feb 2005
Washington calls the MEK a terrorist group. But some administration hawks think its members could help provide intelligence on Iran's quest to develop nuclear weapons.

...The MEK, Rajavi says, is the answer to American prayers as Tehran continues to dabble defiantly in both terrorism and nuclear arms. "I believe increasingly the Americans have come to realize that the solution is an Iranian force that is able to get rid of the Islamic fundamentalists in power in Iran," she told NEWSWEEK in a rare interview at her organization's compound. ...

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Shadowland: Democratic Terrorists?, 24 Feb 2005
Lebanon could emerge as the center of a new Middle East. But first the United States may have to come to terms with Hizbullah.

A look at the role of Iranian-backed political movements in Lebanon and elsewhere:

...Turn terrorists into democrats? That’s not as incongruous as it sounds. The Palestine Liberation Organization was a terrorist group, by most definitions. Now its leaders are hailed as legitimate elected officials. Twenty-five years ago one of the most infamous international terrorist organizations in the world was a Shiite group called the Dawa Party, many of whose cadres eventually became involved with Hizbullah and carried out terrorist acts that included kidnapping Americans and blowing up the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait. (The Dawa was fighting Saddam Hussein, in fact, and Washington and Kuwait were backing him.) Now Dawa Party leader Ibrahim Jafari may well become the new elected prime minister in Baghdad, with Washington’s blessing. So, if politics have made terrorists our strange bedfellows in Palestine and Iraq, why not Lebanon? It’s a tough call, and there’s no guarantee Hizbullah will take on this role. But only if it does is there a real chance Beirut can emerge as the center of the center of the new, democratic Middle East...

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Shadowland: Writing Lolita in Tehran, 31 May 2005
Iranian bloggers have harnessed the subversive power of the Web to express themselves politically--and also to find dates in a society that curtails public courting.

…By 2000, in fact, my friend Hossein the Geek and many other young Iranians came to the conclusion they had to emigrate. “We see that our future is canceled if we want to stay in Iran," he told me then, and a few months later he moved to Canada. In September 2001, after the shock of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, Hossein started reading the commentaries on U.S. blogs, and decided to start his own (http://hoder.com/weblog) in Farsi. Soon afterward he posted a how-to guide. By 2004, according to a survey cited in Alavi’s book, there were some 64,000 Persian-language Weblogs: more than in Spanish, German, Italian, Chinese or Russian. “The Internet,” writes Alavi, “has opened a new virtual space for free speech in a country that Reporters sans Frontières has dubbed ‘the biggest prison for journalists in the Middle East'.”…

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Article: Iran's Nuclear Lies, 2 July 2005
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful uses only. But a history of deception raises doubts.

…Iran's concealments have been as vast as a secret underground facility at Natanz that was being readied for 50,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium when it was exposed in 2002. They have seemed as small as some undeclared milligrams of plutonium from a research laboratory. In a cat-and-mouse game reminiscent of the lead-up to the Iraq invasion in 2003, the Iranians have claimed to be cooperating while throwing up what often seem to be petty obstacles in front of inspectors. Iranians have bulldozed suspect sites. They have declined to allow investigators access to some military areas. They say they just can't find key documents that would show where and how they acquired key designs when they started their enrichment program in the 1980s. (Typically, under heavy international pressure this year, they finally produced one page from 1987 for inspectors to look at, but wouldn't turn it over.)…

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Interview: Mohamed ElBaradei of the International Atomic Energy Agency, 2 July 2005

… “Obviously [Iran] wants to get the maximum technology, and not just nuclear... All the modern technology—Airbus, Boeing. They need the technology to modernize. And I think they understand that the fuel cycle enables them to be part of the "big boys" club, and it's a smart insurance policy, if they can get that, because again, it sends a message to their neighbors. IranMiddle East, which is being reshaped right now... I don't want to speak for them, but they also would like to normalize their relationship, ultimately, with the U.S. Their dialogue with Europe is a bridge toward their ultimate normalization with the U.S.... It is not just the nuclear issue, it is the whole future of the Middle East, it is the whole future of regional security, global security. That's why it makes it more difficult, and that's why it takes time, and that's why people should be patient. As long as they are talking, I'm comfortable. As long as the fuel cycle is suspended, as long as they are making progress, keep at it.” wants to be a major player in the whole

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Shadowland: Rita's Revelation 23 Sep 2005
As oil prices soar, so will demands for atomic energy. Iran knows this and Americans should, too. Why it's time to rethink the global approach to nuclear proliferation.

…The Iranians, for their part, say God doesn't want them to have The Bomb, and they're OK with that. "In accordance with our religious principles," Ahmadinejad told the U.N., "pursuit of nuclear weapons is prohibited." So they claim they're focusing all their attention on the need for nuclear energy as a relatively cheap, efficient and reliable long-term source of electricity. That's why they're conducting their research. That's why they're building their reactors. That's why they're enriching uranium. That's why they are signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which is supposed to open the way for them to develop peaceful nuclear energy, and that's why they are very careful to observe the letter (if not the spirit), of the treaty's language…

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Shadowland: Confidence Game 10 Jan 2006
Iraq has taught us that 'unknown unknowns' make lousy targets. Will Washington heed that lesson when it responds to Tehran breaking its nuclear seals?

…Do [the Iranians] just want to generate electricity, as they claim? Or are they building The Bomb? "This is a matter of trust," said White House spokesman Scott McLellan earlier this week. "They have shown in the past they cannot be trusted." And if that's the case, then what? McClellan added "that's why these negotiations are so important," with a nod to Europe's diplomatic efforts. But leaks seeping into the press suggesting the United States or Israel—or both—might be planning military action could be testing public opinion, or preparing it. When the Bush administration concluded it just couldn't trust Saddam with those unknown unknowns, the invasion scenario came to seem inevitable….

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Interview: Diplomacy and Force 15 Jan 2006
The United Nations' top inspector is prepared to issue a report on Iran's nuclear program that will 'reverberate around the world.

… “No, I'm not angry [with Iran], but I'd like to make sure the process will not be abused. There's a difference. I still would like to be able to avoid escalation, but at the same time I do not want the agency to be cheated; I do not want the process to be abused. I think that is clear. I have a responsibility, and I would like to fulfill it with as good a conscience as I can.”…

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Article: Iran's Rogue Rage 15 Jan 2006
Nukes: Iranians want nuclear know-how—and seem to be daring the West to stop them.

…The complex, contradictory game of secrecy and revelation, cooperation and provocation that the mullahs have played since some of their hidden nuclear facilities were discovered in 2002 has revealed just how little leverage Washington and its allies really have. But the Bush administration and European officials clearly hope they can appeal to Iran's supposedly restive masses to somehow oppose the regime. "The Iranian people, frankly, deserve better," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week. She took pains to say efforts to isolate the government would try not to isolate the people. But a senior European diplomat involved with Iranian negotiations, who asked not to be quoted by name because of their sensitivity, pointed out the basic problem with that strategy: "There are millions of people in Iran who want to move ahead with democracy, but unfortunately we have not been able to help them—and at the same time the nuclear issue unifies the country."…

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Shadowland: Countdown to a Showdown 23 Jan 2006
The next few weeks of diplomacy on Iran's nukes may be too fast and too furious. What we really need to avoid Armageddon.

…Let’s not let ourselves be rushed toward an apocalypse with too-fast, too-furious diplomacy. Let’s keep our eyes on the IAEA, and keep the message to Iran as clear as Joe Friday’s: “Just the facts, Mahmoud.” …

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Shadowland: Countdown to a Showdown: Part II 25 Jan 2006
Two American congressmen have proposed a 'quarantine' they think could stop Iran’s mullahs from building nukes. It’s a high-risk strategy.

…Using a word borrowed from the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the congressmen proposed a “quarantine” to stop ships taking gasoline to Iran and, in Kirk’s phrase, “quickly implode her economy.”…

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Cover Story: Devoted and Defiant 5 Feb 2006
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he doesn't want nuclear weapons. The world is suspicious. How dangerous is he?

… Born to a blacksmith, educated as a revolutionary, trained as a killer and derided by rivals as a mystical fanatic, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is easily cast as the personification of everything there is to fear about a nuclear Iran. But he may be worse than that—not because of how he looks to the outside world, but because of what he represents inside his country. Ahmadinejad plays to a nostalgia for war among parts of Iran's leadership, and even some of its young people: a longing for confrontation, a belief that a quarter century ago, when revolutionary Iran was ready to challenge the world, send countless youths to martyrdom in the fight against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, endure missile attacks on its cities, suffer poison-gas attacks against its troops—in those days the regime of the ayatollahs was purer, more noble, more popular and ultimately more secure….

Iran: Oil Shock Epicenter

Shadowland: Pumping Irony, 21 April 2006
Iran is behind the soaring price of gasoline—and not for the first time.

... Before we get that far, it’s worth considering that Iran’s assertiveness in regional and world affairs seems, quite literally, to follow the market. When the Shah depended on the CIA in 1953 (and the barrel of oil was priced in pennies) he was a more-or-less craven ally. Two decades later, flush with petro-dollars, he was a raving imperialist, who later started Iran’s nuclear program. So, too, with the mullahs. When oil prices were astronomical in the early 1980s, ayatollahs were looking to spread their revolution far and wide. When the price had sunk to about $10 a barrel in the late 1990s, reformists were ascendant in Tehran, and wanted to accommodate the West almost any way they could.

More recently, on the nuclear front, when the mullahs agreed to freeze their enrichment research in 2003, the average price of oil was about $30 a barrel. They again started up nuclear fuel enrichment activities—the same process that can be used to make fissionable material for atomic weapons—last year when the price of oil had reached $50. By the time they announced earlier this month that they’d succeeded with enrichment, oil prices were on their way to $70. Tensions drive up the cost of oil, international pressure inspires Iranian nationalism and increased revenues underwrite the mullahs’ ability to resist. ...

And since this column appeared yesterday, as it happens, oil topped $75 a barrel.

Meanwhile, my friends in California were quick to send updates about prices there:

David: "I'm paying $3.05 at Costco."

Andrew: "In the past 5 days the price of gasoline at my local Arco station has risen from $2.92 to $3.05 -- and Arco is owned by British Petroleum, which presently gets NONE of it's oil from the Mideast."

Alejandro: "AAA calculates the average national price of a gallon of regular gas today as $2.85. In Beverly Hills, one station was selling it for $4.04, but I think that included the botox."