Thursday, November 29, 2007

CSI: The Web - Tracking Gangs and Porn Stars

I'm continuing to gather string on the the Web as virtual crime scene, which was the theme of Newsweek's story, "Murder Most Wired," about the Meredith Kercher case in Italy, A previous posting looked at the broader context, but here are two more specific examples. One involves a hunt for suspects from an MS-13 gang implicated in the killings of three kids in Newark last August. The other is a story about the recent disappearance of a college student in Kansas who recently began leading a double life as a porn star:

Tracking Newark shooting suspects on MySpace
by Jonathan Schuppe
Sunday August 19, 2007, 12:10 PM
The Star-Ledger

The 60 sleepless hours Newark Detective Rasheen Peppers spent chasing the half-brothers wanted in the Newark schoolyard shootings began at his home in Newark, at the keyboard of his IBM ThinkPad, when he searched for them on the social-networking Web site MySpace.

He found nothing under the name of Rodolfo Godinez, the 34-year-old man police have described as a "principal player" in the murders of three college students on Aug. 4.

But the profile of his 16-year-old half-brother, Alexander Alfaro, was packed with clues. It listed the boy's nickname, "Smokey," and the names of dozens of friends who had sent him messages. It seemed to confirm reports that Alfaro is a member of a Latino street gang called MS-13: It included the name of an MS-13 clique (Guanacos Little Cycos Salvatruchos) and pictures of Alfaro throwing gang signs. The page also verified a crucial clue from early in the investigation: The boy had fled New Jersey.

Thursday, Peppers took an hour to build a bogus MySpace profile so he could try to strike up a conversation with Alfaro's friends. For Peppers, a deputized member of the U.S. Marshals Service task force for the New York-New Jersey region the past five years, it was an online version of the old gumshoe technique of finding friends and neighbors.

The detective spent the rest of Thursday trying to draw out the online friends. That night, the FBI in Washington, D.C., shared an informant's tip that the little brother was in in Virginia.

Peppers, remembering the MySpace page had listed friends from Virginia, asked the FBI to hold off until he and other New Jersey members of the task force could get there. Peppers, Daniel Potucek of the U.S. Marshals and Lydell James, the lead Newark homicide detective on the case, jumped in a car at 3 a.m. Friday.

Once they arrived in Virginia, the FBI told them the informant had seen Alfaro in Woodbridge, Va., hanging out with local members of MS-13. Alfaro was with another gang member from New Jersey, nicknamed "El Guapo."

"Guapo?" Peppers said he asked. "I know Guapo."

Peppers went back to the MySpace list of friends.

Peppers showed FBI agents El Guapo's pictures, which included some tattoos that matched the description provided by the informant.

By Friday night, Peppers and others tracked El Guapo to a Salvadoran restaurant in Woodbridge called Bongo's. El Guapo wouldn't tell them anything useful, so Peppers pressed his partners to raid the seven or eight houses they had been staking out.

As they were preparing for the raids, James got a tip from another informant: Godinez was in nearby Prince George's County, Md., where a black car was waiting to pick him up. The tipster said the car would leave at 2 a.m. Godinez would meet Alfaro and the two would head to Texas, then Mexico, then El Salvador, birthplace of MS-13.

At 1 a.m., investigators rushed to an apartment house in Oxon Hill, Md., about a 45-minute drive from Woodbridge, and raided a first-floor apartment with about 10 adults and teenagers inside, including several MS-13 members getting tattoos.

Godinez was in the crowd, but there was no sign of Alfaro.

Peppers and his partners called authorities in Woodbridge and told them to go ahead with their planned raid on a townhouse at Grist Mill Terrace. At around 1:45 a.m., they caught Alfaro walking out the back door. He didn't put up a fight. ... (more)

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Missing student may have been porn star

By ROXANA HEGEMAN, Associated Press Writer

A missing Kansas college student believed to be the victim of foul play apparently led a double life as an Internet porn star by the name of Zoey Zane.

Nude photos of 18-year-old Emily Sander appeared on a Zoey Zane Web site before she vanished, and investigators are looking into whether her modeling had anything to do with her disappearance last Friday.

"She enjoyed it. She is a young teenage girl and she wanted to be in the movies and enjoyed movies. She needed the extra money," Nikki Watson, a close friend of Sander's at Butler Community College, told The Associated Press on Wednesday. "Nobody in El Dorado knew besides her close friends."

Sander's brother, Jacob Sander, confirmed that the nude woman pictured on the site is his sister.

El Dorado Police Chief Tom Boren said FBI and state experts on Internet crime have been called in.

"Investigators are aware that Miss Sander was apparently involved in a Web site situation," he said. "Allegations that this may factor into her disappearance are being thoroughly investigated."

Sander was last seen leaving a bar in El Dorado, about 30 miles from Wichita, with a man identified as Israel Mireles, 24, authorities said. Sander and Mireles had met that night at the bar, according to Watson.

After Mireles did not show up Saturday at his job at an Italian restaurant, his employer went to the motel room where he was staying.

"His motel room was found to appear in great disarray, and a large quantity of blood was found in the room," Boren said. "Bed clothing was found to be missing. The police were called."

A nationwide manhunt was under way for Mireles and his 16-year-old girlfriend. A rental car he had been driving turned up Tuesday in Texas, where he had family. Those relatives have been interviewed, El Dorado Detective Justin Phillips said, but he declined to say whether they had seen Mireles or knew where he was....(more)


No link has yet been established between Sander's activity on the Web and her disappearance, but the case does provide an interesting glimpse into the recruitment of porn models and the distribution of revenues. The Zoey Zane site itself has been taken down, but the company that built and hosted it, using the Internet name RagingBucks, is still running this little item:

New Site
ZoeyZane.com
SEP 25 2007 - RagingBucks is proud to announce our newest teen site - the launch of ZoeyZane.com! Just as our other solo models, Zoey will be very active on her site. Get ready to see the rebills roll in! Start promoting today!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Immigration Background


The Shadowland column "Urban Legends" argues that new immigrants play an important role making America's big cities safer. Among sociologists and many people in law enforcement, this is understood. But it's so counterintuitive that I thought it might be useful to post a couple of notes and links.

One of the most thorough but accessible background reports is from the Immigration Policy Center, "The Myth of Immigrant Criminality and the Paradox of Assimilation: Incarceration Rates among Native and Foreign-Born Men," available for download as a PDF.

The New York Times' recent article about the decline in homicides does not deal directly with the immigrant question, but is a fascinating read: New York City Murder Rate Falling Fast.

Robert Sampson at Harvard and Jim Lynch at John Jay College were both kind enough to share presentations and papers with me that have not yet been published, but which I hope to link to when they are.

The NYPD also generously gave me a print-out list of 52 foreign countries where 284 of its police cadets in the Dec. 2006 class at the academy were born. The largest numbers come from the Dominican Republic (55), Haiti (24), Jamaica (23), China (18), Poland (12), and Bangladesh (11). Perhaps less predictably there are six from Pakistan, four from Turkey, two from Kazakhstan, two from Kosovo, one from Burma, one from Bosnia, another from Indonesia, and so on and on.

And then there's this story:

Immigrant Breaks Law to Become Cop
By CARRIE ANTLFINGER, AP
Posted: 2007-11-23 13:54:41

MILWAUKEE (Nov. 23) - Oscar Ayala-Cornejo followed the path that leads many red-blooded Americans to law enforcement.

His family lived next to a crack house in Milwaukee, where he says he often heard gunshots and came home to find thieves had stolen the things that his father had worked hard to provide for his mother, older brother and sister.

So he got excited when two officers visited his high school to recruit police aides. The doe-eyed 15-year-old decided he wanted to become a cop, maybe make things a little better than he had it growing up.

"I wanted to change my neighborhood, to change other people's neighborhoods, so they could feel safe, you know," says Ayala, now 25. "Because I didn't feel safe."

He wanted that, it turns out, badly enough to break the law.

Though Ayala's family moved to Wisconsin in 1992 from Guadalajara, Mexico, he says he didn't realize until after he'd made up his mind to wear a badge that he was in the country illegally. He didn't know it until his father, Salvador, told him that if he wanted to be an officer, he would have to go back to Mexico and apply for citizenship, a process that can take at least 10 years.

Ayala cried and soon his father, mother and brother wept, too.

A few days later, his father found another option - one that would help Ayala get his dream job, but also would take it away and could cost him his freedom.

His father's cousin, Carmen, who lived in Chicago, would allow Ayala to take the identity of her son, Jose Morales, who was born five months after Ayala in Illinois and died of stomach cancer when he was about 7....(more)

Sunday, November 25, 2007

The Perugia Murder Mystery


In the current issue of Newsweek we take a look at the killing of British student Meredith Kercher ("Murder Most Wired") and the primary suspects, including American co-ed Amanda Knox, in the context of the investigation pulled together by the Italian Communications Police. It’s a disturbing and compelling murder mystery in any case, but there are some distinctly 21st-century (and 20-something) twists.

The whole idea of Communications Police raises Orwellian questions. One thinks of the Academy Award-winning German film, “The Lives of Others,” about the way the Stasi listened in on the private worlds of people in East Germany and used that knowledge to manipulate them. Was the movie historical drama or historical parable? That's the question that kept going through my mind as I watched the DVD recently.

In one way or another (if by other names) the communications police are becoming a standard part of law enforcement just about everywhere in the world, and like most police they can oppress or protect depending on the societies where they serve and the laws that govern them.

“For all the benefits and richness that the Internet and modern telecommunications makes possible, there is a dark side to the virtual world,” says Tim Connors, head of the Manhattan Institute’s Center for Policing Terrorism. “Unfortunately, these tools also enable crime, terror, violence, bullying and other dysfunctional behaviors. Police in the United States have taken notice. Cyber crime units and virtual investigative techniques are becoming routine business. Law enforcement is also exploiting the Internet as a source of intelligence, which can lead to preventing acts of crime and terror before they occur.”

In the Kercher case, in addition to the elements discussed in the current Newsweek story, you can surmise how the Web may have contributed to motive, and it certainly helps to given and idea of the character of the key suspect.

Whether the killer or killers were influenced by the vast libraries of violent pornography available on the Web is, at this point, an open question. The Communications Police have remained as quiet about such details found on the computers used by the suspects as their Italian CSI colleagues have about the DNA of hair and skin under Kercher’s nails. But the government prosecutor said in a statement earlier this month that the fatal wound to Kercher’s throat, a stab into her windpipe that left her voiceless and bleeding to death slowly, came during an episode of “extreme” sex in which she began struggling to break free. (Some Italian press reports suggest Kercher’s spinal cord may have been fractured as well.)

As for Knox, her short stories on the Web are interesting not only because one character talks glibly about date rape, but because another evidently practices self mutilation. In developing what is supposed to be her own persona on Facebook, “Foxy Knoxy” sounds like she was experimenting a little nervously with the risqué freedoms she found in Europe. She and a German uncle visited the red-light district in Hamburg to do a little gawking on “a street where naked women are posing in front of red tinted windows that they can open to make the deal. ewwww.”

Ewwww?

Knox and her sister got lost in Perugia on a first look-see in early September and decided to accept a ride from an older man, even though she thinks hitchhiking is dangerous. She quickly told the driver in broken Italian “we aren’t interested to[sic] going out with his 40-something year old self.” Looking back on that same trip, Knox wrote in her online diary, “I bumped into the most beautiful black man I have ever seen.”

We don’t know from Facebook who that might have been. But two months later, two different African-born men would loom large in the investigation of Meredith Kercher’s murder.

One of them is Diya “Patrick” Lumumba, the slight, round-faced 40-something Congolese owner of a bar called “Le Chic” where Knox landed a job waitressing. After her arrest, Knox would tell police a disjointed story about seeing Lumumba at the cottage she shared with Kercher the night of the murder and cowering in the kitchen with her hands over here ears “because in my head I could hear Meredith screaming.” But Knox also denied that she was there at all that night. She said that she had been smoking marijuana with Sollecito at his place, and making love with him and taking a long shower with him, and that police interrogators had just confused her. She said she might have been dreaming about seeing Lumumba. In fact, no trace of Lumumba – no fingerprints, no DNA -- was found anywhere in the cottage. He has been released for lack of evidence but remains under investigation.

The other African-born suspect is 20-year-old Rudy Hermann Guede from the Ivory Coast, and some people including Amanda Knox might think of him as handsome (although his infamous YouTube appearance doing his imitation of an extraterrestrial vampire wouldn’t leave you with that impression.) We wrote about Guede at length in the current Newsweek article, and also in a piece about his arrest last week by Barbie Nadeau.



These two YouTube postings of Guede and Knox are likely to haunt them for a long time, even if both are proved innocent. In the Knox video, she's silly and drunk, laughing away as a boy in the room makes an anti-Semitic slur about the girl doing the filming.

Mug shots of Rudy Hermann Guede distributed by Italian State Police; photograph of Amanda Knox taken from Facebook.

Kafka in Iraq: The Bilal Hussein Case

In Franz Kafka’s novel “The Trial,” published in 1925, the defendant is never able to discover why he was arrested in the first place. No law is comprehensible; no person he knows is trustworthy. The book ends with the defendant in profound doubt about everything near and far, past and present, as he waits in his cell for execution: “Who was that? A friend? A good person? Somebody who was taking part? Somebody who wanted to help? Was he alone? Was it everyone? Would anyone help? Were there objections that had been forgotten? There must have been some. The logic cannot be refuted, but someone who wants to live will not resist it. Where was the judge he'd never seen? Where was the high court he had never reached?”

Bilal Hussein, an Associated Press photographer in Iraq, is living that same experience, as the Washington Post op-ed by the AP’s president and chief executive, posted below, makes all too clear.

But here's what puzzles me about this case: Since many of the people who were insurgents in Ramadi when Hussein was arrested for being with them are now supposed to be friends of the United States military, does that mean Hussein is a friend, too? Or does it mean he's been fingered by former enemies turned friends to protect their own interests? Or perhaps they actually do have information about him to which the AP has no access. Hard to know since no evidence is available to Hussein, to his lawyer, to his employer or to us.


Railroading A Journalist In Iraq

By Tom Curley
Saturday, November 24, 2007; A17

At long last, prize-winning Associated Press photographer Bilal Hussein may get his day in court. The trouble is, justice won't be blind in this case -- his lawyer will be.

Bilal has been imprisoned by the U.S. military in Iraq since he was picked up April 12, 2006, in Ramadi, a violent town in a turbulent province where few Western journalists dared go. The military claimed then that he had suspicious links to insurgents. This week, Editor & Publisher magazine reported the military has amended that to say he is, in fact, a "terrorist" who had "infiltrated the AP."

We believe Bilal's crime was taking photographs the U.S. government did not want its citizens to see. That he was part of a team of AP photographers who had just won a Pulitzer Prize for work in Iraq may have made Bilal even more of a marked man.

In the 19 months since he was picked up, Bilal has not been charged with any crime, although the military has sent out a flurry of ever-changing claims. Every claim we've checked out has proved to be false, overblown or microscopic in significance. Now, suddenly, the military plans to seek a criminal case against Bilal in the Iraqi court system in just days. But the military won't tell us what the charges are, what evidence it will be submitting or even when the hearing will be held.

Not that former federal prosecutor Paul Gardephe, Bilal's attorney, hasn't asked. The conversation went pretty much like this:

When will the court hold its first hearing? Sorry, can't tell you, except it will be on or after Nov. 29. Since we're trying to be cooperative, we will let you know the exact date at 6:30 a.m. the day of the hearing, if you're in Baghdad by then.

What will Bilal be charged with? Sorry, can't tell you. The Iraqi judge who hears the evidence is the one who decides what charges will be filed.

What evidence will the judge be basing that decision on? Sorry, can't tell you. In the Iraqi court system, we don't have to show our specific evidence until after we file the complaint with the court.

Will Bilal be allowed to present evidence refuting your evidence that we can't see in advance? We don't know. He might be. Ask an Iraqi lawyer if you don't know how this works.

It's almost like a bad detective novel: Go to the phone booth at Third and Jones at 6:30 in the morning and wait for a call for further instructions. How is Gardephe to defend Bilal? This affair makes a mockery of the democratic principles of justice and the rule of law that the United States says it is trying to help Iraq establish.

A year ago, our going to trial would have been good news. But today, the military authorities who created the case against Bilal have largely been rotated out of Iraq. Witnesses and evidence that Bilal may need would also be much harder to find, even if there were time to track them down. Further, if Bilal wins, he could still lose: The military has told us that even if the Iraqi courts acquit Bilal, it has the right to detain him if it still thinks he is an imminent security threat…. (more)


A similar story is told in Michael Tucker's grimly funny and also just grim documentary
"The Prisoner."

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Flashback: "Countdown Iran" from October 2003

As a sidelight on this week's Shadowland column, "Unreality Check," about the not-so-magical realism at work in the Iranian mind and the U.S. administration, it's worth a glance back at a couple of articles.

One is the essay I wrote for "Foreign Policy" in May 2006:

The Oil Shield
Iran is commanding the world’s attention as the ayatollahs accelerate their race for the bomb. But the timetable for talks—or a nuclear crisis—is not being shaped by centrifuges, uranium, or reactors. It’s about the security only a barrel of oil can provide. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3428
(requires registration)


The other, no longer on the Newsweek site, is published here in its entirety:

Shadowland: Countdown Iran, 17 October 2003

The United States finally won a diplomatic victory in the United Nations. But Washington and Tehran are moving toward war. How far will they go?

By Christopher Dickey

Good news from the United Nations today: the Security Council unanimously approved a new resolution for the reconstruction of Iraq. Unfortunately, even the Security Council’s words are cheap, and reconstruction is not. Worse still, there’s a new war on the horizon.

A countdown has started for war between the United States and Iran. It’s quiet but persistent right now, like the ticking of a Swatch. Soon enough though, alarms will start ringing.

When did this move toward war begin? You could say 25 years ago, with the fall of the Shah of Iran, or just this year, when Saddam was deposed. You could make the case that the clock started the moment some of Osama bin Laden’s key aides found sanctuary in Iran, or on the day that Iranian equipment used to make nuclear fuel showed traces of the stuff used in nuclear weapons. But whenever the countdown to war began, it’s already well under way.

Now, countdowns come in a lot of guises. They can be bluffs as trivial as a schoolyard threat, “I’m gonna count to three!” And sometimes they can be stopped, of course. But when it comes to making war, the closer you get to zero hour, the harder that is to do. Expectations rise, political capital is spent, troops are deployed. A crescendo approaches, a point of no return is passed—or is said to be—and the drama of the countdown itself starts to dictate events.

That’s part of the reason we rushed to war in Iraq last spring. The Bush administration didn’t want to lose the momentum it had drummed up for ousting Saddam Hussein, even if it had to fudge the facts about him. So: weapons of mass destruction? “Check.” Links to Al Qaeda? “Check.” United Nations support? A pause there. “Not needed.” U.S. troops in place? “Check.” Ready for action? “Hoo-ah!” Popular support in Iraq? “That’s what they say.” Popular support in the U.S.? “Just look at the polls!” Pliant press? “Yep.” Supine Congress? “Got it.”

In the case of Iran, the first part of that checklist is much the same, except the evidence against the ayatollahs is much more damning. Weapons of mass destruction? Iran has chemical weapons and probably has developed biological ones, but the danger of nasty germs and poison clouds is minor compared to The Bomb, which Iranians are better able to produce with each passing day. So much evidence has piled up suggesting they’re doing just that, a special team from the International Atomic Energy Agency went to Iran at the beginning of this month. The U.N.-backed organization has set an Oct. 31 deadline for Iran to come clean. Inspectors are still there. Still digging. Their report is expected to be tough. So, WMD? Check. Terrorism? Iran supports suicide attacks on Israelis, and its rap sheet for bombing and kidnapping Americans goes back to 1979. (Just 20 years ago next week, it helped blow up 241 Americans at the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut.) But the big question today is whether Iran has ties to Al Qaeda. In the last few weeks, damning leaks have come out of Washington, Europe and various Arab intelligence services suggesting that, yes indeed, those links exist.

Osama bin Laden’s son, Saad, along with Qaeda operations chief Seif al-Adel and other notables are supposed to be working with a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards known as the Jerusalem Force. With help from this group, they are reported to have plotted recent attacks in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. The sourcing for these stories is not conclusive. But they’re much more detailed than the vague allegations about Saddam’s Al Qaeda connections. So, terrorism? Check.

If there’d been this much evidence about Saddam, his zero hour would have come a lot sooner.

But what about popular sentiment at home and in Iran? The Iranian people are desperate for a change. In every election since 1997, they’ve showed just how sick they are of this regime. When they thought they could trust the candidates, they turned out in droves and gave them huge majorities. When those candidates failed to deliver, voters stayed away from the polls altogether. In Tehran’s recent municipal elections, only 12 per cent of the electorate showed up. When the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded the to human-rights activist Shirin Ebadi last week, it strengthened calls for reform across the board. Isn’t this a cause worth fighting for? And what about domestic political imperatives in the United States? Not to be cynical, but President Bush’s approval ratings speak for themselves. When America’s at war he’s wildly popular, when it’s not, he’s not.

You’d think such calculations would make the mullahs repent, if not resign. But these guys clearly think they can call the American bluff, and they’re sure as hell testing American resolve.

The reason is Iraq. Iran’s hard-liners probably believe the United States is too overextended to take on a new enemy, and most probably they’re right. Iran has 500,000 soldiers and mountainous terrain. It probably has chemical and biological weapons, and it has learned from North Korea that if it does manage to produce nukes, it will not be invaded and could be invulnerable.

The troops Washington has on the ground in Iraq, meanwhile, are easy prey for guerrillas, terrorists or mobs any time the mullahs want to play that game. The Iranians don’t need to show their hand. They have lines in with the Kurds, they can buy off Sunnis and they know all the players among the Iraqi Shiite majority. A Western official who negotiated with several of the powerful clergy in Najaf and Karbala recently came back to Europe convinced that Tehran had those holy cities completely wired: “When I talked to the Iranians they knew verbatim—verbatim—my conversations with the Iraqi ayatollahs.” At best, there’s a stand-off, and a dangerous one for both sides. But the countdown continues.

If the IAEA gives a negative report at the end of this month, which it probably will, Washington will back United Nations sanctions against Iran. But to get the Iranians’ attention, those sanctions are going to have to bite. They’d have to hit Iran’s oil industry. And even tough sanctions, by themselves, are the bluntest of instruments. Best of all would be to back up U.N. pressure with the threat of direct force. The record shows that was very effective against Iraq—before the force was used. But at this point, not even Washington’s closest allies will support that kind of bellicosity. Before the Iraq invasion, apologists like British Prime Minister Tony Blair could claim the countdown was all a game of brinkmanship, that the credible threat of
war was intended, in fact, to prevent war. Who would believe him now?

Among Iranian exiles and retired intelligence agents there’s a lot of talk about surgical strikes on nuclear installations. But with its military overburdened and its diplomacy discredited, the Bush administration might be willing to cut a deal with Iran. It could actually wind up guaranteeing the mullahs’ security, in effect, in exchange for promises (verifiable, of course) that they’ll give up weapons of mass destruction, sign a protocol allowing snap inspections, keep their fingers out of Iraq and turn over their Qaeda cohorts.

That’s not really a happy solution. It would do nothing to encourage the demoralized Iranian majority. It would appease the most dangerous elements of the clerical regime. But it might buy time to explore other solutions, and at least it would stop the countdown. Right now, before the United States gets dragged into a third war in three years, that’s probably not a bad plan.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Flashback to 2003: Pride and Prejudices

When writing the review of Bob Drogin's "Curveball" that appears in Sunday's New York Times Book Review I was reminded how steadfastly the American people resisted the facts dawning on them in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion. Unfortunately the column I wrote about all this way back in September 2003 is not live on the Newsweek site for the moment so I am reprinting it here:

Pride and Prejudices
How Americans have fooled themselves about the war in Iraq, and why they’ve had to

Sept. 19 — A sturdy-looking American matron in the audience at the American University of Paris grew redder by the second. She was listening to a panel talking about the Iraq war and its effect on U.S.-French relations, and she kept nodding her head like a pump building emotional pressure.

Finally she exploded: “Surely these can’t be the only reasons we invaded Iraq!” the woman thundered, half scolding, but also half pleading. “Surely not!”

What first upset her was my suggestion that, looking back, the French were right. They tried to stop the United States and Britain from rushing headlong into this mess. Don’t we wish they’d succeeded? (Readers, please address hate mail to shadowland@newsweek.com)

Then she listened as another panelist and I went through the now-familiar recitation of Washington’s claims before the war, and the too-familiar realities since: the failure to find weapons of mass destruction and the inevitable conclusion that Saddam Hussein was not the threat he was cracked up to be, the fantasy that this war could be waged on the cheap rather than the $1 billion per week American taxpayers are now spending, the claim that occupation—called “liberation”—would be short and sweet, when in fact American men and women continue to be shot and blown up every day with no end in sight.

As we went down the list, I could see the Nodding Woman’s problem was not that she didn’t believe us, it was that she did. She just desperately wanted other reasons, better reasons, some she could consider valid reasons for the price that Americans are paying in blood and treasure.

It’s not the first time I’ve come across this reaction. I just spent a month in the States and met a lot of angry people. A few claim the press is not reporting “the good things in Iraq,” although it’s very hard to see what’s good for Americans there. Many more say, “Why didn’t the press warn us?”

We did, of course. Many of us who cover the region—along with the CIA and the State Department and the uniformed military—have been warning for at least a year that occupying Iraq would be a dirty, costly, long and dangerous job.

The problem is not really that the public was misinformed by the press before the war, or somehow denied the truth afterward. The problem is that Americans just can’t believe their eyes. They cannot fathom the combination of cynicism, naiveté, arrogance and ignorance that dragged us into this quagmire, and they’re in a deep state of denial about it.

Again and again, you hear people offering their own “real” reasons for invading Iraq—conspiracy theories spun not to condemn, but to condone the administration’s actions. Thus the “real” reason for taking out Saddam Hussein, some say, was to eliminate this man who rewarded the families of suicide bombers and posed as an implacable enemy of Israel. (Yet the bombings go on there, and surely the chaos in Iraq does nothing for the long-term security of the Jewish state.) Or the “real” reason for invading Iraq was to intimidate Syria and Iran. Yet Tehran, if anything, has grown more aggressive, and may actually have stepped up its nuclear weapons program to deter the United States. (After all, that strategy worked for North Korea.) Or the “real” reason was to secure America’s long-term supply of oil, but the destabilization of the region, again, may make that more tenuous, not less.

But the real problem with such “real” explanations is that they were not the ones cited by President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair as the compelling reasons to rush to war last March. Then, they talked about weapons of mass destruction, and the fight against terrorists.

Which brings us to the grandest illusion of all: the link between Saddam Hussein and September 11. A Washington Post poll published earlier this month concluded that 69 percent of Americans thought it “at least likely” that the former Iraqi leader was personally involved in the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. There’s nothing to back this up. So puzzled political scientist and pollsters, with evident disdain for the public, suggested the connection is just the result of fuzzy thinking: Al Qaeda is evil, Saddam is evil, the attacks on 9/11 were evil and folks just draw dumb conclusions. Other analysts pointed the finger at the administration, which spins harder and faster than Hurricane Isabel to convince us the war in Iraq is part of the war on terror begun on September 11, without quite explaining where it fits in.

Yet just this week President Bush himself (and Donald Rumsfeld, too!) admitted that information to substantiate this popular fantasy just doesn’t exist. “We’ve had no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved with September 11,” Bush said flatly, almost matter-of-factly, on Wednesday.

Is the president taking a chance here? Will the public recoil in horror, claiming he’s somehow lied to them? I don’t think so.

Bush knows what a lot of his critics have forgotten: the Iraq war is not just about blood and treasure, or even about democracy or WMD or terror. It’s about American pride. And people—perfectly intelligent people—have always been willing to sacrifice sweet reason in order to save face, to protect pride. As George Orwell pointed out, they will refuse to see what’s right in front of their noses. He called this condition a kind of political schizophrenia, and society can live quite comfortably with it, he said, until “a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.”

Well, that’s what’s happening right now. It’s not only American money and lives that are being lost, it’s pride. But people in the United States will try to deny that for as long as they possibly can.

Unfortunately for those of us who live abroad, that’s much harder to do—and that’s why the woman at the American University in Paris the other evening was really so angry. When I stopped her in the hall afterward she said she was terribly upset because even though she’s lived in France for years, and is married to a Frenchman, the behavior of people here in the last few months has made her bitter.

I know just how she feels. The media talk about anti-Americanism, but what’s really noxious right now is an insufferable smugness, a pervasive air of schadenfreude, and I fear it’s a symptom of still worse to come from this Iraq adventure. Because the bitterest contradiction of all may be that this war was waged—first and foremost—to save face after the humiliation and suffering of September 11. It was meant to inspire awe in the Arab and Muslim world, as former CIA operative Marc Reuel Gerecht and others insisted it should be. And in that it truly has failed. Every day we look weaker. And the worst news of all it that it’s not because of what was done to us by our enemies but because of what we’ve done to ourselves.

Published on www.newsweek.com, Saturday, September 20, 2003

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Dutch Riots: Too Much Tolerance of Intolerance?

A disturbing picture of a deteriorating situation that has attracted little notice outside Holland:

FROM WORLD DEFENSE REVIEW
Published 30 Oct 07
International Desk


By Abigail R. Esman
World Defense Review columnist

Riots and Radicals Rising in the Netherlands

For six nights running (as I write this; it may be more by the time you read it), Moroccan youth in the Slotervaart neighborhood have burned cars, busted windows, and brought mayhem to the streets. But unless you're one of those people who follow these things closely, you may not have heard about it yet: the events haven not received much play in the media outside Holland. The chaos hasn't reached the level yet of the Paris riots in 2005; perhaps it just doesn't seem important enough for foreign press to bother with.

But it is important, in part because it comes only days after a multicultural festival in the Hague also ended in a riot, as 200 or more Moroccan youth threw stones and other objects at policemen. Why? Because the time allotted for the Moroccan band had ended and it was another ethnic group's turn to play.

In Amsterdam, the cause is something different altogether. On the morning of October 14, 22-year-old Bilal Bajaka, a Dutch-Moroccan who lived in the area, entered a local mosque and asked directions to the nearest police station. It wasn't far.

At 11:30 a.m., Bajaka entered the police headquarters on the August Allebéplein, leapt across the counter, grabbed a female police officer and stabbed her in the chest. As she tried to free herself, he plunged his knife into her back, perforating a lung. He then lunged at a male colleague, stabbing him in the throat, shoulders, and back. As the two men wrestled, the wounded woman drew her gun and fired. Seconds later, Bajaka lay dead on the police department floor.

TERRORIST TIES

As it turned out, this was not Bajaka's first encounter with the Amsterdam police. He'd been arrested earlier, and was known already to have connections to the Hofstadgroep, Holland's largest home-grown terror network to which Mohammed Bouyeri, who slaughtered filmmaker Theo van Gogh in 2004, also belongs. According to Dutch intelligence records, Bouyeri once paid a visit to Bilal, and Bouyeri's cohort, Samir Azzuz, is known to have met several times with Bilal's brother, Abdullah, probably concerning the acquisition of illegal weapons and explosives.

That's not all. In October, 2005, Dutch intelligence reported that Azzouz, Bilal and Abdullah had planned to shoot down an El Al plane at Amsterdam's Schiphol airport. (It is not known exactly what went wrong.) Abdullah was arrested and released within ten days. Bilal himself received no sentence.

This past August, after a slew of smaller crimes, a judge ordered that Bilal Bajaka be admitted to a psychiatric center for treatment of what his parents now say was schizophrenia. Over the next few months, he escaped the center several times before doctors officially released him, maintaining that he posed not threat either to himself or others. On October 11, three days before the stabbing, he checked himself in again.

Then he left... (more)

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Bush's Tortured Explanation of Torture

In this stand-off with Matt Lauer on NBC's Today Show last September, President Bush makes as good a case as he appears able to make for the various torture-related policies his administration has used against suspected members of Al-Qaeda ... and others. He repeatedly refuses to discuss "techniques," since that would allow "the enemy to adapt." And we need to take his word that all this has made us safer. Maybe it has. Maybe not. If we had the facts, we could judge. But ... that would allow the enemy to adapt. As I listened to the president, I kept wondering if "the enemy" includes anyone who questions his policies. Of the several versions of this video segment that appear on YouTube, this seems to have the best image and sound:


Hot Pursuit: Going After Rumsfeld in Court

As this week's Shadowland column implies, some present and past CIA officers may want to think twice, or three times, before traveling to Europe. That may be true for more senior Bush administration figures as well. Consider the reception Rumsfeld has been getting in Paris:


PARIS (AFP) - French, US and German rights groups said Friday they had filed suit for "torture" against ex-US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, currently in Paris, for his role in the Iraq war and the US "war on terror".

Around 20 campaigners gave Rumsfeld a rowdy welcome as he arrived for a breakfast meeting in Paris, yelling "murderer", waving a banner and trying to push into the building, according to the organisers, a political magazine. ... (more)

PARIS (Reuters) - Human rights groups have filed a lawsuit in France alleging that former U.S. defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld allowed torture at U.S.-run detention centers in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

The plaintiffs, which include the French-based International Federation of Human Rights Leagues (FIDH) and the U.S. Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR), say Rumsfeld authorized interrogation techniques that led to rights abuses.

The United States says it does not torture, though it has authorized several methods widely condemned by rights groups such as exposure to extreme temperatures and 'waterboarding', or simulated drowning.

"We will only stop once the American authorities involved in the torture program are brought to justice," CCR chief Michael Ratner said in a statement posted on the FIDH Web site.... (more)


This week's column:

Shadowland: Judgment Day for the CIA?
In a real-life version of 'Rendition,' a determined Italian prosecutor is hunting down those charged as the Bush administration's contract kidnappers. http://www.newsweek.com/id/62129

Associated Press file photo

Thursday, October 25, 2007

The Road to Rendition (from 2005)


This is a very rough video about the rendition of Abu Omar and what went wrong for the CIA. I hope to be able to produce a more polished product by the end of the year, once I've updated my editing equipment.

Shadowland: The Road To Rendition, 16 March 2005
Kidnappings by terrorists are a dirty business. But what happens when the terrorists themselves are kidnapped?


By Christopher Dickey

[Note: this is undedited copy off my hard drive. During the transition to the new Newsweek Web site (http://www.newsweek.com/) several stories were lost from the archives. They are gradually being re-loaded, but I’m posting this in the meantime for reference purposes.]

Via Guerzoni is a quiet street on the outskirts of Milan, Italy, in a former industrial neighborhood that is somewhere between decrepitude and redevelopment. High walls line both sides of the road for about 100 yards as it runs between a park and a half-abandoned plant nursery. If you’re in the business of making people disappear – call it kidnapping, or maybe counter-terrorism, or, in the Bushian jargon of the moment, “rendition” – then Via Guerzoni is a good venue. Few people are around, and many of those are Muslim immigrants who want as little to do with the police as they can.

So whoever snatched an Egyptian-born imam known as Abu Omar off Via Guerzoni in broad daylight on Feb. 17, 2003, had planned well. And if their tradecraft had been a little bit better, the incident could have been kept very quiet, and forgotten quickly. But they screwed up, and soon, possibly as early as next week, you can look for the abduction of Abu Omar to emerge as a major embarrassment to President George W. Bush and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

The fiercely independent judiciary in Milan, led by investigating magistrate Armando Spataro, has prepared a case and expects to issue warrants alleging that a dozen or more foreign agents, some of them reportedly Americans, were involved in the abduction of Abu Omar. They are supposed to have driven him in the truck to the U.S. airbase at Aviano, Italy, then flown him to Cairo. In Egypt, as the saying goes, “they have ways of making you talk.”

Since Italian reporter Carlo Bonini first broke the story of this investigation in the Rome daily La Repubblica last February, U.S. officials have been waiting for the other shoe to drop. Washington is wondering how much the courts think they know? How much can they prove? Spokesmen at the U.S. consulate in Milan and the U.S. embassy in Rome said they were unable to comment on any of the substantive questions, and they believed no official requests for information have been received from the Italian government. That will change if and when the arrest warrants are issued.

Now that the second-term Bush administration is advocating democracy and the rule of law around the world, its own lawless ways during the first term are an embarrassment. What’s been called, with a bit of hyperbole, the Guantanamo Gulag has become a liability. So are ongoing revelations about the practice of “renditions”: sending suspected terrorists to countries with even fewer scruples about interrogation practices than the Bush administration. (“Outsourcing torture,” is the catch phrase used by human rights activists in Italy and elsewhere.)

The agents involved in Milan, whoever they were and wherever they came from, must be cursing their luck. At first, everything went so well. The 42-year-old Abu Omar, née Mostafa Hassan Nasr Osama, was no common immigrant, after all. His bad-guy credentials were all in order. An Islamist firebrand, he came to Italy in 1997 by way of Afghanistan and Albania. In the famously radical mosques on Via Quaranta and Viale Jenner, he was always recruiting what he called “the youth” to go blow themselves up as “martyrs” in one jihad or another.

The Italian secret service known as DIGOS (formerly “the political police”) had focused on him in the summer of 2002, when a bug they’d placed in the Via Quaranta mosque picked up a conversation he had with a visitor from Germany outlining plans to re-structure a terrorist organization that’s been connected to both Al Qaeda and the now-infamous Abu Musab Al Zarqawi. So even people who knew and sympathized with Abu Omar weren’t sure, at first, that he hadn’t decided secretly to go fight the Americans in Afghanistan – or maybe Iraq, where the war was just about to begin.

Too bad, from the kidnappers’ point of view, that a woman walking out of the park on Via Guerzoni that chilly February afternoon in 2003 saw two men spray something in Abu Omar’s face and bundle him into the back of a truck. Even worse, for those who wanted to hush up the whole affair, Abu Omar resurfaced – at least by telephone. On April 20, 2004, more than a year after he’d disappeared, the Italian cops listened in on a phone call he placed from Egypt to his wife in Milan, telling her he’d been in prison, but was now under a kind of house arrest; he would send her money, and she should be quiet. But Abu Omar didn’t take his own advice. He called another imam in Milan, and eventually recounted the tale of how he’d been abducted and where he’d been taken. Soon afterward, Abu Omar dropped out of sight again in Egypt, presumably re-imprisoned. A lawyer for the Gamaa Islamiya, an Egyptian group to which Abu Omar belonged, says he has no idea where the imam is now, whether in jail, alive, or dead.

Over the last year, I’ve collected many hundreds of pages of court documents, warrants, official transcripts, rulings and appeals related to the various terrorist cases in Italy. Abu Omar figures in almost all of them. And in bits and pieces, more or less discretely, the public documents confirm much of what Bonini first wrote last February, based on unnamed sources.

In a pleading issued last month by Judge Guido Salvini against a group of Tunisians suspected of terrorist connections, for instance, there is a concise description of Abu Omar’s case: “It is now possible to affirm with certainty that he was kidnapped by people belonging to foreign intelligence networks interested in interrogating him and neutralizing him, to then hand him over to Egyptian authorities.” Salvini writes that Italian investigators have confirmed the substance of what Abu Omar recounted in those phone calls from Egypt. In “a kidnapping that was the work of Western agents and which undoubtedly constitutes a serious violation of Italian national sovereignty,” says Salvini, Abu Omar “was taken to an American base, interrogated and beaten and the next day taken an on U.S. military plane directly, with an intermediate stop, to Egypt.”

Who were the agents involved? According to Bonini, they left a lot of evidence behind, including rental car contracts, hotel bills, and passport details. When Spataro issues his warrants, the names on those documents certainly will be included.

Last week, I passed through Milan and decided to visit the scene of the crime. As I walked the quiet roads between Abu Omar’s apartment and that lonely stretch of Via Guerzoni where he was kidnapped, I kept thinking of something he was told by the mysterious visitor from Germany in that conversation tape recorded back in the summer of 2002. They talked about reorganizing the Hizb Al Tahrir group after the post-9/11 arrests in Europe. They talked about money: where to get it (from Saudis); how to use it (to make more money). They talked about “the youth” who could be used as martyrs. And toward the end of the chat, the Unidentified Man warned Abu Omar, as if from nowhere, “You need to study the street, because war ought to be studied…” In the shadow world of terror and counter terror, even a quiet street like Via Guerzoni can be a battlefront.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

George W. Bush and "The Quiet American"

President Bush, in his speech last week comparing Vietnam and Iraq, made an awkward allusion to Graham Greene's 1955 novel "The Quiet American" and its subject, Alden Pyle. Several commentators find this puzzling, as Dan Froomkin at washingtonpost.com and Frank James at the Chicago Tribune blog, "The Swamp," have noted.

Maybe Bush was thinking of the original movie version of the film, in which Pyle is played by Audie Murphy, the World War II hero-turned-actor. It was filmed in Saigon (and, oddly, in Cinecitta) and Joseph L Manckiewicz dedicated it to dictator Ngo Dinh Diem. The last ten minutes or so a pure Cold War propaganda that turn Greene's wonderfully prescient observations upside down. (He disavowed the film completely.) If that's the "Quiet American" Bush had in mind, of course he would see it as a endorsing his Vietnam, er, Iraq policy. He would have missed completely the terrible evils inflicted by Pyle's good intentions.

As it happens, I've been dragging Pyle, and Graham Greene, into articles about George W. Bush since May 2001. Normally I would just post the links here for the purpose of illustration, but since the Newsweek archives are still in the process of catching up with its relaunched Web site, I'm posting the full texts below:


May 11, 2001, Newsweek Web Exclusive:
The Arrogant American?

Europe is growing increasingly suspicious of Washington-and the ousting of the United States from two United Nations panels may be a sign of things to come


Hollywood, with its keen sense of the emotional moment, is remaking "The Quiet American." Based on Graham Greene's 1955 novel, it's the story of a tragically naive American official in Saigon who, convinced of his own desire to do good, misunderstands completely the values and needs of other societies. Audie Murphy starred in the first version. Brendan Fraser stars in the remake. And much of Europe thinks President George W. Bush is playing the role in real life.

"He was sincere in his way," Greene wrote of his American, Alden Pyle. "It was coincidence that the sacrifices were all paid by others."

Today, the image of the United States as oblivious, arrogant and maybe downright dangerous is reinforced every morning in European headlines. The cliched notion of Uncle Sam as a gun-toting loner and geopolitical cowboy, common during the Reagan years, is back with a vengeance.

The rhetoric has real-life consequences: The vote that excluded the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Commission last week is "an alarm that ought to make Washington think," said the French daily Le Monde. The subsequent reaction of the U.S. Congress only worsens the ugly stereotype. The House--acting against the Bush administration--voted to withhold $244 million owed the United Nations as part of Washington's already long-overdue back dues. "This will teach [these] countries a lesson," said Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of California. "Actions have consequences. If they would like to get this payment, they will vote us back on the commission. If they don't, it will cost them $244 million."

More likely, the United States is going to find itself increasingly isolated, even in forums where it traditionally leads the consensus. Another secret U.N. ballot last week cost the United States its seat on the International Narcotics Control Board. "Does President Bush want to conduct his business with no thought of the U.N.?" asks columnist Pierre Rousselin of the conservative Paris daily Le Figaro. "The countries that refused to vote for the United States wanted to teach a lesson to the new master of America."

Nor is the United Nations the only international organization where Washington faces mounting suspicion and resentment because of the Bush administration's perceived unilateralism. As ministers from the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development prepare to meet in Paris next week, senior staffers at the OECD are concerned that Washington's approach to international trade focuses on bilateral and regional accords rather than pursuing global agreements that are more difficult to negotiate.

The same OECD staffers expressed amazement at Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's statement that Washington will no longer support the organization's attempt to crack down on tax havens. "The United States does not support efforts to dictate to any country what its own tax rates or tax system should be and will not participate in any initiative to harmonize world tax systems," O'Neill said in a statement. "The OECD never proposed any such thing," said one of its senior officials.

For Europeans, a core complaint about America is its continued use of capital punishment. Even the (now delayed) execution of confessed Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh is unacceptable in many European eyes. As Le Monde pointed out Friday, McVeigh is "an authentic bad guy." But Europeans have come to see the abolition of the death penalty as a measure of a country's civilization and humanity; a standard that the United States generally, and former Texas Gov. Bush particularly, fails to meet.

In addition, Europeans have a list of perceived slights and insults so long it begins to sound like a litany. "There's the anti-missile system that's presented as take it or leave it," says Le Figaro's Rousselin, then "Washington's unceremonious withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocols, which want to limit emissions of greenhouse gasses. The United States refuses to ratify the convention on the rights of the child, the one banning anti-personnel land mines, the nuclear test ban treaty and the even one that foresees an international criminal court."

Those last rejections of widely supported U.N. initiatives date back to the Clinton administration, and there may be good reasons for the United States to withhold its support from any or all of these measures. But the impression is growing abroad that Washington is intent on imposing its own narrow, self-interested values on the world. If the trend continues, so will the disquiet about Americans.




February 11, 2002, U.S. Edition:
Fears in the 'Un-America'

Europe doesn't like what it's hearing. As Bush turns up the heat, our transatlantic allies grow uneasy with the us-vs.-them rhetoric


By Christopher Dickey


The Statue Of Liberty once looked out over the rooftops of Paris. "Liberty Enlightening the World," as the sculptor called it, was assembled in 1883 a short walk from the Champs-Elysees, then shipped to New York. It was a gift from France to the United States, from the Old World to the New, in appreciation of all the ideals that Americans seemed to represent in those days, and that Europe was inclined to forget. The United States was building democracy, free speech, equal justice, the rule of law--the "nonnegotiable" universal values President George W. Bush says he's fighting for today--while one horrific conflict after another swept the Continent in the 19th century, and the two most horrible wars, and the Holocaust, were yet to come in the 20th.

And you know what? Polls show that most Europeans still see the United States as a beacon of freedom, and by large majorities. Even the French, no longer known as America lovers, openly admire America's power, its freedoms, its wealth and its dynamism. Last December, 65 percent considered it pretty sympathique. And yet... as one influential official in Paris explained last week, "You can love the Americans and still be paranoid."


Tremors of fear (if not loathing)--of American power, American hubris and what is perceived as an American inclination to ignore its friends as it damns its enemies--are coursing through Europe these days. As Europeans listened last week to Bush proclaim his vision of a new and dangerous epoch--which, with its very own "axis of evil," sounded chillingly like world wars of the past--America's traditional allies were left wondering where they fit into his scheme of things. Bush made just one scant reference to Europe in his State of the Union speech, and yet much of what he said will directly affect European lives.

Some feel as if they're hooked to a superpower locomotive that's about to go out of control, with an engineer who sees no reason to heed their warnings. "What is worse," says former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, "is that [the Europeans] don't have a clue where it's going."

In the hallways of New York's Waldorf-Astoria, where VIPs gathered for the World Economic Forum last week, many European dignitaries and diplomats were resentful. What had become of the antiterrorist partnership Europeans thought they'd built with the United States and reinforced after September 11? The prevailing sentiment seemed to be that Europe had been taken for granted at best, and at worst forgotten. "For any coalition to last, it has to be real," French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine publicly chided Secretary of State Colin Powell. "If you are talking about a coalition for a stable world, it's not enough just to fight terrorism."

Even NATO, forged by the great binding treaty that spans the Atlantic, didn't seem to figure in the plans Bush described to Congress. "Will Americans fight a war through NATO ever again?" asks Bildt. "It's doubtful." Instead, the Swede bitterly imagines a different division of power: "The U.S. reserves the right to itself to wage war, and dumps on others the messy, expensive business of nation-building and peacekeeping."

Even in Britain, America's most dependable European ally in times of trouble, anxieties are bubbling up. British Member of Parliament Peter Mandelson told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that he saw a "nascent cleaving" between the United States and Europe. "In the aftermath of September 11," says Richard Norton-Taylor, security editor of The Guardian newspaper, "there was a hope that America would engage the rest of the world." Instead, there is a growing sense that Bush tailors his policies for "American consumption... and ignores the opinions of Europe and the Middle East." The photos out of Guantanamo Bay of Taliban and Qaeda prisoners shackled and blindfolded show "the complete disregard, not to say contempt, the Bush administration has for [international] public opinion," says Norton-Taylor.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken flak at home for seeming too chummy with Bush and other Americans.

Europeans have always found the United States ingenuous, even dangerously so, when it throws its weight around. More than a century ago, Rudyard Kipling warned Americans about the risks of waging "savage wars of peace"; in the 1950s Graham Greene wrote that American "innocence is a kind of insanity." And a certain residual anti-Americanism is probably endemic in Europe, especially among the elites. But beyond the tired jealousies of faded colonial powers, the rivalry of trading blocs and the snobbery of old cultures about new ones, several specific issues divide the United States from much of Europe. The cursory way the United States rejected the Kyoto treaty on greenhouse gases, its reluctance to pursue a campaign against offshore tax havens and its willingness to toss out the antiballistic-missile treaty are just some of the issues that set European nerves on edge even before September 11.

Europe is a place where the death penalty isn't allowed and where the environment is an issue that makes or breaks governments. Taxes are higher, but then people are less wasteful of gasoline that costs $4 a gallon. The welfare of society and the community is exalted over that of the individual. Diplomacy is favored over force in almost every instance. "There exists a European art of living," says France's Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. "We have our own way of taking action, of defending freedoms, of fighting against inequality and discrimination, of thinking and of organizing labor relations, of teaching and of healing and of managing our time. Each of our countries has its own traditions and rules, but together they make up a common universe."

That universe, however, rubs right up against another. The Arab and Muslim world is on Europe's doorstep, with a long, painful, complicated history of clashing faiths--or civilizations, if you will--that Europe has internalized. The French and Germans and Britons understand that the United States feels vulnerable as never before. But so do they. And they don't have much faith that a military campaign here or there will solve their problems. In parts of Europe, Turks and North Africans provide most of the immigrant labor force. Many live in increasingly volatile communities where second- and third-generation Muslim youths are unemployed, unintegrated and angry. A few of those young men have been recruited into the ranks of Al Qaeda. Others carry out random acts of vandalism and violence. The communal wars of Kurds and Turks that seem so distant to most Americans have been transplanted to the hearts of many German cities.

The conflict between Arabs and Israelis is felt between the French Muslims and French Jews living side by side in the working-class suburbs of Paris and Marseilles. Since the new wave of violence began between Israel and the Palestinians, some surveys have shown a massive increase in vandalism of French Jewish schools and synagogues, as well as sporadic attacks on individual Jews. Among the European far right and Roman Catholic extremists, there may be residual anti-Semitism of the kind that tolerated and collaborated with the Holocaust. And
European Jews are wary as well of upper-crust condescension that walks a thin line between disapproval of Israeli policy and an uglier disdain for Israelis. But that isn't what this new violence is about, says one leading Israeli historian; "this is a new form of communal violence by a deprived Arab community that has not integrated, and will strike out at any target, under any pretext."

These are not the kinds of problems that European leaders think Washington's war on terror is likely to solve. And when they see the Bush administration taking sides in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, instead of pressuring both parties to negotiate, they can barely contain their frustration. When Washington and Israel then resist European efforts to foster a solution, there's consternation. "The Americans aren't prepared to do anything," says a senior adviser to Tony Blair, "and they don't want anyone else to do anything either." And yet by presenting itself as the superpower arbiter of the world's conflicts, Washington sometimes cannot help but be hated by one side or another.

One country where the United States is really loathed, certifiably and widely, is Greece--but by the Christians. Days after September 11, crowds in Athens were burning American flags, and polls showed that many thought the United States had gotten what it deserved at Ground Zero. Why? Because it failed to force the Muslim Turks out of northern Cyprus, and it backed the Muslim Bosnians and Kosovars against the Serbs, who are mostly Orthodox Catholics, like the Greeks.

But the disquiet in Europe is not only about differences on security issues, or the war on terror, or the shift in the Mideast peace process. There's another, deeper, perhaps existential (to use a
favorite European word) element: all this is happening as the Europeans are trying to redefine exactly who they themselves are.

When France sent the Statue of Liberty to the United States as a testimony of faith in the freedom America represented, Europe was an incubator for totalitarians, a slaughterhouse for the common people. But 57 years have passed since the end of World War II, and Europe is now in the midst of an amazing experiment, building unity through consensus instead of empire. Since January a single currency has jingled in the pockets of people in 12 countries, and the European Union is expected to admit at least 10 more members--for a total of 25--by the end of 2004. Europe will eventually be a single market of 500 million people--stretching from the Arctic Circle to the Mediterranean, from the west coast of Ireland to the eastern border of Poland.

Thus far, this union has been a technocratic miracle, and sometimes a bureaucratic nightmare. But Europeans are searching for a better way to define it politically and socially. For want of another vision, many describe it as the "un-America," like the "un-cola." They cherish the notion that it's kinder, gentler, safer, wiser, worldlier and (ahem) more civilized.

Of course, Europe has been able to cultivate its humanistic values because it was protected by the awesome military power of the United States. But some Europeans think those days are ending in the midst of this war on terror. They see Bush extolling his relationship with China and Russia, with India and Israel, and they wonder why they've been left off the A-list. There may even be a risk that in Bush's "with us or against us" world of policymaking, as Europe tries to assert itself more strongly, the un-America could truly become anti-America. But that fear still seems to tip toward paranoia. For now, the criticism sounds more like one of Graham Greene's weary, worldly heroes, talking about an idealistic Yank "who was as incapable of imagining pain or danger to himself as he was incapable of conceiving the pain he might cause others."

With Stryker McGuire in London, Andrew Nagorski, Michael Meyer and Michael Hirsh in New York, Stefan Theil in Berlin and Toula Vlahou in Athens


Shadowland:
The Terrorist Temptation, 18 November 2005

The Bush administration is so accustomed to torturing the truth, it can’t face the facts when they scream out.


Over a glass of Champagne and under the eyes of raging priests on a vast Old Testament tapestry, I caught up with Paul Wolfowitz in Paris earlier this week. The now-president of the World Bank and former U.S. deputy secretary of defense, who is seen by many as the architect of the Iraq invasion, was talking mainly about development issues in Africa and bird flu. The cost of fighting the avian-borne pandemic, he said, might be as much as $1.5 billion. He made that
sound like an awful lot of money, and probably it is when he’s scrounging for funds from international donors. But since $1.5 billion is about what the United States spends each week in Iraq, I asked Wolfowitz if he didn’t feel a few regrets about that venture.

Wolfowitz has a very pleasant way about him, professorial and quietly passionate. Regrets? No. “It’s extremely important to win the fight in Iraq,” he said. At the cocktail after the conference in the ornate reception room of a grand palais, I buttonholed Wolfowitz again. We all wanted to get rid of Saddam Hussein, I said, but when it became obvious in 2002 that we didn’t have a decent plan for occupying Iraq, shouldn’t we have thought again? “I think there shouldn’t have
been an occupation,” said Wolfowitz. He thought we should have trained more Iraqis to take over. He didn’t elaborate – he was running out the door -- but Wolfowitz always thought that Ahmad Chalabi should run post-invasion Iraq.

So the big mistake in Mesopotamia, it would seem, was not following the grand plans of the best and the brightest who took us to war there in 2003. Others failed, not they. And maybe the armchair war-lovers of the Bush administration really believe this. Ideologues see the world through different lenses than ordinary people. From their perches in government or academe, they like to imagine themselves riding the waves of great historical forces. Faced with criticism, they point fingers at their enemies like Old Testament prophets and call down the wrath of heaven.

But there’s no reason the rest of us should delude ourselves, which is one reason, I suspect, that Congressman John Murtha (D-Pa.), a retired Marine colonel and long-time friend of the U.S. military on the Hill, spoke yesterday with such unfettered outrage. In some of the sound-bites heard on the news, he seemed to be out of control. He was not and is not. He full statement, which I’ve posted on The Shadowland Journal is as well reasoned as it is passionate. The war in Iraq, he said, “is a flawed policy wrapped in an illusion.” Unlike Wolfowitz, who once went before Congress without even bothering to check how many Americans had died at his instigation, Murtha makes frequent visits to Bethesda and Walter Reed hospitals to talk to the maimed survivors of this conflict. “What demoralizes them is going to war with not enough troops and equipment to make the transition to peace; the devastation caused by IEDs; being deployed to Iraq when their homes have been ravaged by burricanes; being on their second or third deployment and leaving their families behind without a network of support.”

Murtha makes a point that ought to be obvious, but that this administration constantly struggles to obscure: “Our military captured Saddam Hussein, and captured or killed his closest associates. But the war continues to intensify. Deaths and injuries are growing, with over 2,079 confirmed American deaths. Over 15,500 have been seriously injured and it is estimated that over 50,000 will suffer from battle fatigue. There have been reports of at least 30,000 Iraqi civilian deaths.” Meanwhile “our reconstruction efforts have been crippled by [the] security situation. Only $9 billion of the $18 billion appropriated for reconstruction has been spent. Unemployment remains at about 60 per cent. Clean water is scarce. Only $500 million of the
$2.2 million appropriated for water projects have been spent. And most importantly, insurgent incidents have increased from about 150 per week to over 700 in the last year.”

Murtha argument that only a withdrawal of American forces can improve the situation was greeted by troops I know on the ground, and also by the White House, with genuine consternation. There is a plan, they say. In President George W. Bush’s phrase, “as Iraqis stand up, Americans will stand down.” And the military keeps compiling metrics to show something like that is happening. But it’s not enough, and Murtha puts his finger on the essential problem: as long as the Americans are there to bear the burden of the fighting, the Iraqis who are supposed to stand up don’t really see any need. As Murtha put it in mil-speak: “I believe with a U.S. troop redeployment, the Iraq security forces will be incentivized to take control.”

In fact, standing down is not about pulling out. So topsy-turvy is the policy at this point that we’re not going to imagine leaving until the Iraqi government demands that we go – and
you can be sure the Iraqis who are now taking power surely will do just that. When? As soon as they and their Iranian allies have consolidated their hold on the southern three-fourths of the country and its oil.

There’s no mystery here. The mullahs in Tehran who harbored, trained and funded what are now the most powerful Shiite political parties in Iraq, have always seen American soldiers as useful idiots in this fight. Americans are welcome to die in Iraq as long as their mission is to eliminate Tehran’s old enemy Saddam Hussein and wipe out his supporters. The Iranians originally thought they would have to force the Americans out when that job was done. But the chaos of the occupation and the trend of Iraqi democracy now make the mullahs’ job even easier. All they have to do is get their clients and friends in Baghdad to demand an American departure.

Ahmad Chalabi, always close to Tehran, might do that himself if he actually manages to become prime minister. In Washington this week, he suggested the deadline the administration was unwilling to name: the end of 2006.

The Bush administration no longer sets the agenda in Iraq, in fact, and hasn’t for at least two years. The watershed came in November 2003 when there was a dramatic spike in US casualties and Washington suddenly scrambled together a policy for transferring sovereignty back to Iraqis instead of pocketing it indefinitely for the Pentagon and the oil companies, as originally intended. The American invasion, which was supposed to be pro-active, has led to an occupation that is entirely reactive, and it’s clear – or ought to be – that the castles in the air constructed by Wolfowitz and his friends have been blown away by facts on the ground.

President George W. Bush showed hopeful signs of pragmatism earlier this year, but no longer. His speeches over the last week, with Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld singing back-up, attack critics for re-writing the history that they have tried to invent. What’s the bottom line of what Bush is saying now? That we are now in Iraq and have to stay the course because … the terrorists want us there. As the White House transcript puts it, “Our goal is to defeat the terrorists and their allies at the heart of their power, so we will defeat the enemy in Iraq.” But – the terrorists we’re fighting now didn’t have any power in Iraq until our invasion. Ideologues like to fight ideologues, so they tend to miss details like that.

For any of us who lived through the Cold War, Bush’s attempts to equate the scatter-shot writings of Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, with the challenges posed by Marxism-Leninism and the Soviet empire are just mind-boggling. In his Veteran’s Day address to troops at Tobyhanna Army Depot in Pennsylvania (Murtha’s home state), Bush started four paragraphs with the phrase “like the ideology of communism.” He longs transparently for the challenge of an Evil Empire, like the one his idol Ronald Reagan confronted, whether of not it exists.

This is nuts, but alas, not that unusual in the annals of American policy. Once again, President Bush’s lethally misguided good intentions are reminiscent of Alden Pyle in Graham Greene’s novel “The Quiet American,” about the early days of U.S. involvement in Viet Nam: “He was absorbed already in the dilemmas of Democracy and the responsibilities of the West; he was determined – I learnt that very soon – to do good, not to any individual person but to a country, a continent, a world. … When he saw a dead body he couldn’t even see the wounds. A Red menace, a soldier of democracy.”

Such naïveté is bad enough. But the transparent envy that America’s right-wing ideologues conceive for the tactics of their enemies, the enormous temptation to fight them by using their
methods, is much worse. They subscribe to some higher truth than ascertainable facts, divining the intentions of their enemies and turning them into the stuff of paranoid fantasy. My colleague Fareed Zakaria pointed out in the summer of 2003 the way Wolfowitz and his ideological allies made a habit of vastly overestimating the Soviet threat to the United States, beginning in the 1970s. Then they overestimated the Chinese menace in the 1980s. And in the 1990s they turned their hyperbolic lens on Saddam. “Threat assessments must be based not simply on the intentions of an adversary, but on his capabilities as well,” Fareed wrote. It would have helped if they’d considered the strain on American capabilities as well.

Once we had plunged into the Iraq conflict, and discovered how out of our depth we were, instead of acknowledging that truth the administration decided to wring a more satisfactory picture from thousands of prisoners. In some cases, too many cases, this meant brutalizing them to the point of outright torture. As M. Gregg Bloche and Jonathan Marks pointed out this week in an essay published by the International Herald Tribune, the interrogation practices used at Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib were derived from old Red Army methods. “The Pentagon cannot point to any intelligence gains resulting from the techniques that have so tarnished America’s image,” wrote Bloche and Marks. “That’s because they were designed by Communist interrogators to control a prisoner’s will rather than to extract useful intelligence.”

As Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) points out in this week’s Newsweek, torture diminishes the very ideas that make America great – and different – from its enemies. At a practical level, Rep. Murtha notes that “since the revelations of Abu Ghraib, American casualties have doubled.”

Wolfowitz was right about one thing, I thought, as I saw him hand off his glass of bubbly and head for the door. There shouldn’t have been any occupation, and certainly not the one he left us.